Sources & Methodology

The Velocity of Hope: Living Through Economic Miracles

This book synthesizes decades of scholarship on rapid economic transformation and is an attempt to make visceral what it means for the average citizen living through extreme economic growth after years of stagnation and despair. Below you'll find the key sources that shaped this narrative, the methodology behind the economic indicators used throughout, and suggestions for further exploration. History is complex. I, along with the help of a flock of AI assistants, have done my best to be accurate, but errors inevitably creep in. Feedback is warmly welcomed.

Essential Reading for Going Deeper

If this book sparked your interest in economic transformation, these works will take you deeper into the mechanics, moral complexities, and human stories behind the numbers.

On Nazi Germany's Economic "Miracle" (1933-1939)

The Wages of Destruction

Adam Tooze (2006)

The definitive one-volume treatment. Unmatched on recovery, rearmament, foreign-exchange constraints, and the fatal contradictions of Nazi economics. This book shaped my understanding of how economic policy was inseparable from racial ideology from day one.

The Nazi Economic Recovery 1932-1938

R. J. Overy (1996, revised)

Laser-focused on the recovery mechanics: public works, rearmament, labor policy. Essential for understanding the 1936/37 policy break when "guns over butter" became explicit. My go-to for industrial production statistics and investment data.

Hitler's Beneficiaries

Götz Aly (2005)

Reveals the distributional politics behind consent—how plunder, targeted benefits, and welfare programs created popular support. Critical for understanding why ordinary Germans felt prosperous even as the system cannibalized itself.

The Third Reich in Power

Richard J. Evans (2005)

Provides the social-political narrative wrapper with solid economic chapters. Essential context for understanding what the numbers meant for daily life. Rich in personal stories that bring statistics to life.

On America's Wartime Transformation (1940-1945)

Destructive Creation

Mark R. Wilson (2016)

Best single study of how mobilization actually worked. Cuts through mythology about the "arsenal of democracy" to show the messy reality of procurement, planning, and corporate power. Eye-opening on how big business shaped the war effort.

Arsenal of World War II

Paul A. C. Koistinen (2004)

Institutional history of planning, allocation, finance, and civil-military bargaining. Shows how the War Production Board actually functioned (or didn't). Indispensable for understanding the organizational miracle.

Pocketbook Politics

Meg Jacobs (2005)

Centers OPA, consumer politics, rationing, and price control. Brilliant on how Americans experienced the home front economy. Essential counterpoint to German consumer experience under the Four-Year Plan.

"Wartime Prosperity? A Reassessment"

Robert Higgs (Journal of Economic History, 1992)

Classic challenge to "the war ended the Depression" narrative. Argues that genuine prosperity didn't return until after reconversion. Critical for understanding what growth statistics actually measure.

How the Economic Indicators Were Assembled

The Challenge of Historical Comparison

Comparing economic data across countries and decades is fraught with challenges. Different statistical methods, changing definitions, missing data, and propaganda-influenced reporting all complicate the picture. Here's how I approached these challenges:

Key Performance Indicators by Chapter

Each chapter includes a standardized set of KPIs to track economic transformation. The goal was to capture both the macro picture (GDP growth, industrial production) and the lived experience (wages, hours worked, consumption). There are some chapters where the data is not available, and in those cases some of the KPIs are not included.

Indicator	Why It Matters	Key Sources
Unemployment Rate	The most visceral economic indicator—determines family survival	Germany: LeMO/DHM archives; US: BLS historical series
Real Weekly Wages	What workers actually took home, adjusted for inflation	Germany: Bry (1960); US: BLS Bulletin 852
Industrial Production	The engine of both transformations	Germany: Hoffmann index via Overy; US: Federal Reserve
Weekly Hours Worked	Captures intensification of work effort	Germany: Wuppertal dataset; US: BLS
Investment (Public/Private)	Shows state vs. market dynamics	Germany: Overy tables; US: BEA/OMB
Import Constraints	Germany's Achilles heel	Overy compilation of Reich statistics
Personal Saving Rate	Forced saving vs. patriotic bonds	US: BEA/NIPA; Germany: fragmentary

⚠️ Important Caveats

German statistics post-1933 are politically influenced. Unemployment figures excluded women, Jews, and political opponents. Production statistics prioritized propaganda value.
Definition changes make comparison tricky. German "unemployment" in 1934 meant something different than in 1932 due to work-creation schemes and statistical manipulation.
Quality adjustments are nearly impossible. German "ersatz" goods and American rationed products meant consumption statistics don't capture welfare accurately.
Missing data required judgment calls. Where reliable annual data wasn't available, I've marked with (—) rather than guessing. Bottom-half income shares for Germany remain elusive.

Primary Statistical Sources

For Germany (1933-1939)

• Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich (1933-1940) - Official statistics, handled with care
• Bry, Gerhard - Wages in Germany, 1871-1945 (NBER, 1960) - Still the best wage series
• Hoffmann Index - Industrial production (1928=100), via Overy's compilations
• Wuppertal University Archives - Weekly hours worked in industry
• Reich Labor Ministry records - Employment figures (with all their flaws)

For United States (1940-1945)

• BLS Bulletin 852 (1946) - War and Postwar Wages, Prices, and Hours - Gold standard for wartime labor data
• Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - National Income and Product Accounts back to 1929
• Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index - Monthly data throughout the war
• War Production Board records - Production priorities and Controlled Materials Plan
• Office of Management and Budget - Historical tables on federal receipts and spending
• Congressional Research Service - Wartime economic mobilization reports

Additional Resources for Researchers

Specialized Studies Worth Exploring

• On German business collaboration: Peter Hayes, Industry and Ideology: IG Farben in the Nazi Era
• On German agriculture: Gustavo Corni, Hitler and the Peasants (1990)
• On U.S. price controls: John Kenneth Galbraith, A Theory of Price Control (1952)
• On synthetic fuel: Anthony Stranges, "Germany's Synthetic Fuel Industry 1927-1945"
• On nutrition: Baten & Wagner, "Autarchy, Market Disintegration, and Health" (2002)
• Comparative overview: Mark Harrison (ed.), The Economics of World War II (1998)

Digital Archives & Databases

• FRASER (Federal Reserve Archive) - fraser.stlouisfed.org - Treasure trove of historical economic documents
• World Inequality Database (WID) - wid.world - Income distribution data for the U.S.
• NBER Publications - nber.org - Classic studies digitized
• German History in Documents (GHDI) - germanhistorydocs.org - Primary sources translated

Corrections & Feedback Welcome

History is complex, and despite careful checking, errors inevitably creep in. If you spot mistakes, have additional sources to suggest, or want to discuss the interpretations, I'd love to hear from you.

Find me on X: @joonaheino

DMs are open for substantive discussions about economic history, growth, and the choices ahead.

Last updated: August 2025